| Speaking at the Gartner Mobile and Wireless summit in | | | | beyond today's municipal hotspots to meet the |
| London, Gartner research vice-president Ian Keene | | | | technical descriptions of 4G; LTE, which was the |
| said that five key wireless technologies are likely to | | | | obvious contender, UMB, Qualcomm's hope for 4G. |
| emerge in the next five years to make the lives of | | | | though many operators were still weary of |
| anyone managing wireless networks even more | | | | Qualcomm's licensing terms; and WiMAX. which he |
| complicated. | | | | predicted would be the second 4G standard. |
| In the personal space, Bluetooth will be joined by | | | | Keene said that one of the biggest problems with |
| Zigbee for low-power telemetry with batteries that last | | | | WiMAX in Europe would be its high operating |
| months or years. | | | | frequency of 3.5GHz which would require more base |
| Office wireless LANs will finally see 802.11n along side | | | | stations and cause problems with in-building coverage, |
| the b, g and sometimes a standards we have today. | | | | though the situation was improving with some 2.5GHz |
| However, at 300MBPS, Wi-Fi N will require Gigabit | | | | licenses now being issued. |
| Ethernet to the access point and in many cases new | | | | However, he does not expect handsets to be |
| Power over Ethernet systems to deliver the increased | | | | available for some time. The first handsets will be |
| power requirements needed. For the wide area | | | | expensive with terrible power consumption. For users |
| network, a combination of copper, fibre and WiMAX | | | | and operators who do not wish to go through that |
| will be creeping in. "Not WiMAX as mobile, but WiMAX | | | | phase, Gartner does not expect WiMAX handsets |
| as a fixed solution," he stressed. | | | | with comparable features to today's 3G handsets |
| For the mobile arena, today we have moved from | | | | before 2011. |
| GPRS to EDGE to WCDMA, pockets of HSDPA | | | | "WiMAX's problems are cutting the time advantage |
| (High Speed Data Packet Access, sometimes called | | | | that Mobile WiMAX had over LTE," he said. |
| 3.5G) and the promise of HSUPA (High Speed Uplink | | | | LTE (Long Term Evolution) may be ready by 2009 |
| Packet Access). In some parts of Asia and the United | | | | and because of this, Gartner does not expect to see |
| States, companies will also need a CDMA strategy. | | | | too many existing mobile operators taking up WiMAX |
| Then there is the future potential of WiMAX. | | | | in their home market. However, for new entrants, or |
| Despite the hype, 4G is still not here today and already | | | | for established operators exploring new markets, |
| it is questionable if it makes economic sense to invest | | | | WiMAX does have a role to play. |
| in the backhaul for today's HSDPA and HSUPA mobile | | | | "We don't believe it (WiMAX) will be the leading 4G |
| broadband. | | | | standard. We expect less than two percent of |
| 802.16d fixed WiMAX might well die in the trough of | | | | handsets will be WiMAX, but that is still a big market |
| disillusionment and be replaced by mobile WiMAX | | | | for manufacturers," he said. |
| 802.16e in fixed installations which will deliver greater | | | | The ITU has also defined 4G as 100 MBPS of |
| economies of scale. | | | | highly-mobile use and 1 GBPS in a nomadic setup. |
| Keene said that the entire mobile market was up until | | | | However, delivering that level of connectivity will |
| now driven by hype. Vendors are pushing new | | | | require a huge amount of spectrum. |
| products to operators to invest a lot of money in | | | | In Europe today, 585 MHz of spectrum has been |
| scared that their competition will invest in it and | | | | allocated, but the UMTS forum has forecasted that if |
| succeed with something they do not have. | | | | everyone is to take advantage of 4G by 2020, |
| Today, the GSM family together has 79 percent of | | | | another 1,200 to 1,700 MHz of frequency will need to |
| connections as of the end of 2006. This is significant | | | | be licensed. |
| as these operators will likely evolve with the GSM | | | | "Where on earth is that going to come from?" he |
| family to 3G WCDMA, HSPA and to LTE as they will | | | | pondered. |
| need backward compatibility as their networks evolve. | | | | Today, the ITU has approved bands in the 450 and |
| For 3G, Gartner forecast that the GSM family would | | | | 700 MHz range which have the added benefit of being |
| capture 89 percent of worldwide connections, some | | | | able to travel long distances and penetrate walls, but |
| one billion by 2011. Meanwhile pre-3G GSM continues | | | | still to get the amount of frequency needed, the |
| to grow in developing countries and the entire family | | | | industry expects to use the untapped 5 GHz spectrum |
| will reach around four billion user by then. | | | | which will have "atrocious" coverage and require huge |
| However, the question is not just GSM versus CDMA, | | | | investments in terms of base stations. |
| but there are emerging IP-based technologies such as | | | | "4G is a technology in search of a business case. |
| WiMAX, municipal Wi-Fi and other proprietary stuff | | | | Vendors are developing 4G standards and rolling out |
| that is vying for the next 4G standard. | | | | prototype 4G networks, while mobile numbers are |
| "4G. We don't know exactly what it is, but it is going to | | | | saturated and operators have trouble growing ARPU |
| have an IP backplane, OFDM (orthogonal frequency | | | | (average revenue per user). |
| division multiplex), software defined radio and MIMO | | | | "We can't say that 3G has been such a great |
| (multiple in, multiple out)," he said. | | | | success so can you give me billions more to invest in |
| Keene said that there were four main contenders for | | | | 4G. I can't see it happening," he said. |
| 4G today. There was Wi-Fi which was evolving | | | | |